The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged today is 100%, and the probability of a rate cut in June is only 1.2%

By: rootdata|2026/04/29 18:51:03

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged today is 100%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 98.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 1.2%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until July is 94.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 5.4%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 92.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 7.2% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 0.2%.

Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist Wilson pointed out that the momentum in the semiconductor sector is waning, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index having dropped nearly 14% from its peak. Funds are shifting towards AI supercomputing giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, as well as sec...

$10,000 in TRUMP Token vs. $10,000 in Nasdaq: The "Trump Trade" That Actually Worked in 2026

TRUMP Token lost more than 96% after its launch, while Nasdaq stocks and NVIDIA delivered strong gains. Compare what happened to a $10,000 investment and explore why asset fundamentals matter more than market hype.

Morning Report | Vitalik outlines Ethereum's long-term roadmap, Lean Ethereum will become the third major iteration; SK Hynix seeks to attract more AI investors by listing in the U.S

July 5 Market Important Events Overview

The impact of OUSD on Circle, Tether, and Paxos: not a single negative factor, but a more complex reshaping of competition

OUSD will not be the last new competitor; Circle needs to respond more actively in terms of products, distribution, and ecosystem collaboration.

Li Feifei's latest long article: When video generation, robots, and NVIDIA all claim to be world models, we need a taxonomy

Language gives machines a way to talk about the world. The world model is the means by which machines ultimately understand, imagine, reason, and interact with it.

Blaming the desolation of the cryptocurrency world on the rise of AI is a form of intellectual laziness

The emergence of giants signifies a mature business model. Although it will reduce speculative space, there is also enough room for error, allowing for the continuous emergence of new forces.

Strategy Founder: The Next 10 Years of Bitcoin

In the next decade, the biggest evolution of Bitcoin is precisely "responding to change with invariance." The four-year cycle is giving way to capital flows such as ETFs, corporate and sovereign reserves, and bank credit, while digital credit and digital currency will grow layer upon layer on top of...

Forbes Special Report: Stablecoin cross-border payments are faster now, but not cheaper yet

Cross-border payments using stablecoins are rapidly expanding, bringing speed and accessibility, but due to insufficient institutional liquidity, they have not yet delivered on their promised cost savings. The technology has been validated, and regulations are improving, but the industry has not yet...

A valuation of 8 billion dollars, doubling in 8 months! What makes the crypto-friendly bank Erebor Bank stand out?

Erebor is a high-profile experiment taking place at the intersection of banking, cryptocurrency, and industrial policy.

340 billion valuation: Li Yanhong's largest IPO, a seat in Kunlunxin's shares is hard to come by

As a core asset in Baidu's AI landscape, Kunlun Chip is expected to exceed Baidu's market value after going public, becoming an important bargaining chip in its turnaround battle.

Stablecoins are the "royalists" of the crypto world: Open USD brings the old currency system into play

The emergence of Open USD has shifted the competition for stablecoins from the market struggle of crypto startups to a battle for infrastructure involving traditional finance, payment networks, technology platforms, and public chain ecosystems.

Cape Verde 2-3 Argentina: The Underdog Team That Stunned the World in Defeat

Cape Verde's run ended in a 3-2 defeat to Argentina, but their journey — three unbeaten draws, one heroic goalkeeper, and a fight that pushed the defending champions to the brink — is the kind of story markets recognize too: small caps can rattle blue chips long before anyone expects it.

Semiconductor stocks plummet, yet Anthropic wants to create a 2nm chip

Abandoning TSMC and teaming up with Samsung. Anthropic launches a self-developed 2nm chip program, challenging Nvidia and starting a battle to break through computing power costs.

Where is Zhao Changpeng's billion-dollar investment going? YZi Labs' investment landscape fully revealed

Zhao Changpeng's billion-dollar new "family office" YZi Labs investment landscape revealed: 70% of the funds are committed to the crypto ecosystem, while 30% are cross-industry bets on AI and biotechnology, launching a new capital experiment in the post-Binance era.

Ethereum Foundation Report: A Basic Guide to Ethereum for Governments and Financial Institutions

The Ethereum Foundation has released this non-technical introductory report aimed at government officials, central banks, regulators, and corporate decision-makers, explaining how Ethereum works, how it is governed, how it differs from other blockchains, and how institutions and governments are alre...

A pre-announced harvesting case: After the cryptocurrency price dropped by 99%, the public chain Saga exited to transform into AI

True failure often isn't a single price drop, but rather a pricing mechanism that repeatedly rewards those who tell stories while repeatedly punishing those who believe in the stories.

When American giants collectively "defect" from Chinese AI models

Coinbase CEO publicly stated: the company has fully switched its AI to a Chinese model, cutting expenses in half while usage has doubled. Snowflake and Lindy are also doing the same thing—an unnoticed "AI model migration wave" is happening.

The cryptocurrency industry has become a traditional industry

For entrepreneurs and retail investors still in this industry, they should either embrace the current changes or explore the next unpredictable field in cryptocurrency.

Chip frenzy cooling down? Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Funds are shifting towards AI supercomputing giants like Microsoft and Amazon