Bernstein Analysis: Memory Prices Are Still Rising, But Phones and PCs Can't Keep Up

TL;DR
· Bernstein's June tracking shows that the contract price of conventional DRAM samples in 2QCY26 rose approximately 74% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND rose about 60%.
· TrendForce publicly estimates that in 3Q26, the price of general DRAM will increase by 13%-18%, and NAND Flash will increase by 10%-15%.
· Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to benefit, but LTA limits, reduced smartphone production, and NAND competition will suppress the extent of price increases.

Bernstein's latest June memory tracking pushes memory price increases to a high level. Its weighted sample shows that the contract price of conventional DRAM in 2QCY26 increased by about 74% compared to the first quarter, while the overall contract price of NAND rose by about 60%.

This set of numbers has a direct significance for investors: rising memory prices will elevate revenue and profit expectations for manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while also increasing procurement costs for PC, smartphone, and server manufacturers. Over the past few months, demand from AI servers and cloud providers has pushed memory prices up, but ordinary consumer electronics have begun to show a counter effect, with smartphone manufacturers reducing production and configurations, making it more difficult for PCs and consumer sectors to absorb the continuous price increases.

It is important to distinguish that Bernstein's June tracking belongs to a report sample scope and is not the official final value released by TrendForce. TrendForce's public forecast in March had previously indicated a quarter-on-quarter increase of 58%-63% for general DRAM contract prices in 2Q26 and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 70%-75% for NAND Flash. As of July 3, TrendForce publicly estimates that in 3Q26, the contract price of general DRAM will increase by 13%-18%, and NAND Flash contract prices will increase by 10%-15%.

In other words, memory prices are still rising, and the server shortage has not ended, but the steepest part of the price increase may have already passed.

DRAM Prices in Q2 Rose by 74%, Server DDR5 Remains the Strongest Demand

DRAM prices remain strong, supported by servers.

Bernstein's June tracking shows that spot prices continued to rebound in May. PC DRAM DDR4 and DDR5 chips rose by 5.6%-11.5% quarter-on-quarter, while server DRAM modules rose by 6.1%-26.4%, with DDR5 performing particularly well. More importantly, spot prices are still significantly higher than contract prices, meaning that buyers who do not lock in supplies through long-term agreements will face higher costs in the spot market.

The breakdown of the quarter-on-quarter increases in conventional DRAM contract prices shows that price increases are not limited to a single category. PC DRAM rose by about 49% quarter-on-quarter, server DRAM rose by about 67%, mobile DRAM rose by about 80%, and consumer DRAM rose by about 85%. The significance is greatest on the server side, as it is directly related to AI data centers and capital expenditures of cloud providers, which can better support the profit expectations of memory manufacturers.

Summary of DRAM spot and contract prices; 2QCY26 conventional DRAM sample weighted average QoQ +73.9%, server DDR5 module spot price QoQ +26.4%.

American cloud service providers are still prioritizing supply. The report mentions that SK Hynix and Micron had basically negotiated relevant long-term agreements by April, while Samsung is still pushing for higher prices. Micron's long-term agreement price ceiling is close to its second-quarter level, while Samsung and SK Hynix's ceilings may be even higher. Negotiations with Chinese cloud providers are still ongoing into the third quarter, with terms being relatively less favorable.

This is also the reason why the rate of increase in contract prices will slow down, but it does not mean a turn to decline in the short term. Server demand is still digesting the new supply, especially for DDR5 and high-end server modules, which remain the strongest part of the entire DRAM market.

Comparison of server DDR5 RDIMM spot and contract prices; spot prices are far higher than contract prices, with June contract prices rising by 9.1% quarter-on-quarter, and the premium of DDR5 over DDR4 expanding to 22%.

NAND Prices Are Rising, But Wafer Prices Have Weakened

NAND appears to be in a significant rising cycle, but the structure is more complex than DRAM.

Bernstein's sample shows that in June, the spot price of NAND wafers fell by 3%-4% quarter-on-quarter, while the wafer contract price only slightly increased by 0.3%-3.7%. Looking solely at wafers, prices have clearly weakened compared to earlier periods. However, mobile NAND and SSD contract prices are expected to rise significantly by 70%-80%, driving the overall NAND contract price up by about 60% in the second quarter.

Not all segments of NAND are experiencing the same increase. The wafer segment has already shown signs of fatigue, while demand for end products and enterprise-level needs continue to support the overall average price.

This also explains why the rate of increase in NAND prices in the third quarter is difficult to maintain at the level of the second quarter. The high increases in the second quarter were more driven by price adjustments in mobile NAND and SSDs. Once smartphone manufacturers reduce procurement and lower capacity configurations, the price pressure on NAND will become apparent faster than on server DRAM.

Trends in NAND wafer and eMMC/UFS contract prices; TLC wafer contract prices increased by 3.7% MoM in June, and QLC increased by 0.3%, but mobile NAND and SSD drove the overall QoQ increase of about 60% in 2Q.

For companies related to NAND such as SanDisk and Kioxia, this differentiation is particularly important. Short-term prices are still trending upwards, but if wafer prices weaken first, subsequent profit elasticity will rely more on enterprise-level SSDs, mobile contract execution, and inventory digestion speed.

Prices Will Continue to Rise in Q3, Just at a Slower Pace

The third quarter does not mark the end of price increases, but rather a slowdown in the pace of increases.

TrendForce publicly estimates on July 3 that in 3QCY26, the contract price of general DRAM will increase by 13%-18%, and NAND Flash contract prices will increase by 10%-15%. Compared to the second quarter, the rate of increase has clearly narrowed.

Pressure comes from both ends.

On one side, AI servers are still procuring supplies, and American cloud service providers are receiving priority supply, which continues to support prices in the short term. On the other side, consumer electronics have begun to adjust. Smartphone OEMs are starting to lower production plans and memory usage, with low to mid-range models being more affected as they rely more on mature products like LPDDR4 and find it harder to pass on cost increases to consumers.

TrendForce previously estimated that global smartphone production in 2026 will decline by 10% year-on-year to about 1.135 billion units, with a pessimistic scenario potentially seeing a drop of over 15%. When a decline in smartphone production coincides with a reduction in memory specifications, the price increase potential for mobile DRAM and mobile NAND will be constrained.

The PC side also faces similar pressures. In June, PC DDR4 and DDR5 chip spot prices continued to rise, but if end demand cannot bear higher costs, the pace of procurement may slow, and channels will be more cautious in replenishing inventory.

Trends in PC DDR5 chip spot and contract prices; from the end of 2025 to June 2026, spot prices rebounded quickly from a low point, with a brief adjustment in March-April before rising again.

Another constraint comes from long-term agreements. LTAs can help memory manufacturers lock in orders and reduce the impact of price declines, but they may also limit further price increases. Especially when some agreements set price ceilings, even if spot prices rise, they may not fully reflect in the average selling prices of manufacturers for that quarter.

Therefore, the sample increase in contract prices in the second quarter cannot be simply equated with the actual ASP increase for each company. Product mix, HBM ratio, LTA execution price ceilings, and final settlement at the end of the quarter will all affect the final revenue recognition for companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Manufacturers Still Benefit, But Smartphones and LTAs Will Suppress Realized Increases

Memory manufacturers remain the most direct beneficiaries.

According to a report from Investing.com in June, Bernstein raised the target price for Samsung Electronics to 440,000 KRW, for SK Hynix to 3.3 million KRW, and for Micron to 1,300 USD, maintaining an "outperform" rating. SanDisk's target price was also raised to 3,000 USD, maintaining an "outperform" rating, due to new long-term memory agreements and price floors. Kioxia maintains an "underperform" rating.

The ratings themselves are not the focus of this article. More importantly, in the current price environment, the market is still willing to give leading DRAM and some NAND manufacturers higher profit expectations.

However, short-term price increases cannot be directly interpreted as long-term risk-free upside.

Destruction of consumer demand has already occurred. Smartphone manufacturers are reducing production and specifications, with low to mid-range models being more sensitive. The faster memory prices rise, the more likely end manufacturers are to respond by reducing capacity, switching to older generation products, or delaying procurement.

Supply will also continue to ramp up. Bernstein's model assumes that memory prices will gradually peak in 2H CY27 and normalize in CY28. The current shortage is more a result of strong demand from AI servers, delayed supply adjustments, and the combined effect of long-term agreements locking in supplies, rather than a permanent supply-demand imbalance.

Competition from Chinese manufacturers in the NAND sector remains a long-term pressure. Compared to DRAM, NAND is more susceptible to the impacts of new capacity and price competition. Once demand slows down and supply increases, price declines may first occur in the weaker segments of NAND.

The short-term main line of this round of memory market remains clear: server and AI demand keep DRAM prices high, while NAND was also pushed up by mobile and SSD prices in the second quarter. However, starting from the third quarter, the pressure on smartphones, PCs, and consumer sectors will significantly slow the pace of price increases. For investors, "prices are still rising" and "the strongest phase of price increases has already passed" are two matters that need to be viewed separately.